Cleveland vs. Miami,
05/01/2019 19:10 EDT,
Score: 2 - 4
Money Line: +135 Miami
Indians RH Corey Kluber (2-2, 5.81 ERA) vs. Marlins LH Caleb Smith (2-0, 2.17)
In his last three trips to the hill, Smith has allowed just 2 runs in 18 innings along with 22 strikeouts. The Marlins have won all three of those starts. The southpaw also is a difficult hurler to make solid contact off of. His hard contact rate, per Statcast, is 21.5 percent, in the top 6 percent in the Majors. Lots of value here backing him against Kluber and company tonight. Note: KLUBER is 17-26 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 4-11 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 3 seasons.
Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Indians are 7-17 in their last 24 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.Indians are 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Marlins are 4-0 in Smiths last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Marlins are 4-0 in Smiths last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Marlins are 7-1 in Smiths last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.Marlins are 4-1 in Smiths last 5 home starts.Marlins are 7-2 in Smiths last 9 starts.
MLB team (MIAMI) - NL team with a poor SLG (.400 or less ) against a poor AL starting pitcher (WHIP 1.600 to 1.700), with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 29-9 L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CLEVELAND) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are just 12-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the ML