Chi Cubs vs. Seattle,
05/01/2019 18:40 EDT,
Score: 11 - 0
Total: -117/+8½ Over
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Cubs have been hitting the ball very well of late. The Cubs have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Chicago has been very good against lefties in recent seasons and I would expect that to continue this season.
The Mariners rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Seattle's lineup has some very good right handed hitters who specialize in hitting lefties.
Marco Gonzales is having a good season thus far, but he is due for regression. Gonzales has a 2.80 ERA and a 4.46 SIERA. His swinging strike rate is down to only 7.3% this season.
Jon Lester has given up a ton of hard contact this year. Opposing hitters exit velocity against Lester averages 92.4 mph. That is in the bottom 4% of the majors. Lester isn't going to keep getting away with that kind of hard contact rate in the long run.
The Cubs bullpen rates slightly worse than average so far this year. The Mariners have a bottom five bullpen in the majors.
The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
Take the over.