-

Articles

Super Bowl "Props" Plays With Value by Joe D'Amico

League: NFL
By: Joe D'Amico Published on: 02/01/2014

Super Bowl "Props" Plays With Value by Joe D'Amico

While I don't put a ton of stock in "strange" props, with each passing year, they become more and more popular. Over the hundreds of props, I came up with a slew that have true value and profitable possibilities.

#1

Will either team make a FG the 1st Qtr?

Yes EVEN

No -120

I SAY YES because in the Title game, scoring first of in the opening qtr is huge.

#2 Longest FG of game: 43 1/2

Over-110

Under-110

I SAY OVER because no matter what, any chance (especially early) a team get to take the lead, they will go for it.

#3 Total Interceptions by both teams: 1 1/2

Over-130

Under+110

I Say Over because both teams have great defenses and there will be time-sensitive periods where the QB's will rush throws.

#4 Will there be a Special teams or Defensive TD?

I Say Yes.

Yes+160

No-180

With both great stop units and solid ST squads, there is true value in the Yes wager.

#5 Total Rushing yards by Marshawn Lynch: 92 1/2

Over -110

Under -110

I Say OVER because Lynch is the workhorse of the Seattle offense, putting up 1257 YR on 78.8 YPG and over the L2 contests, the RB posted 249 total yards on 5.0 YPC against two great defenses in New Orleans and San Francisco.

#6 Total Rushing Attempts by Marshawn Lynch: 21 1/2

Over-110

Under-110

I say Over because he is the key to allowing Russell Wilson to open up the passing game and as the season went on, the RB averaged more APG.

#7 Total Rush Attempts by Peyton Manning: 1 1/2

Over +145

Under -165

I Say Over. Manning averages 2 rush attempts per game this season. In this matchup, he faces a very talented Seattle defense and must make a few on-the-spot-decisions to gain some 3rd down yardage. I feel there is value on the over.

#8 Total TD Passes by Peyton Manning: 1 1/2

Over-200

Under+175

I Say yes to the Over. I know it's a bit high to lay the price but the QB has always been money in big games. Lest not forget he set an NFL record with 55 TD passes this season. So laying the wood here seems to be a safe bet.

#9 Total Touchdown passes by Peyton Manning: 2 1/2

Over +160

Under-180

I Say Over for the same reasons that I previously liked it at 1 1/2, Manning will continue his success in the air.

#10 Total Rushing Yards by Knowshon Moreno: 56 1/2

Over-110

Under-110

I Say Over. Moreno averages 64.8 per game this season but with the emergence of Montee Ball, it makes it tougher for Seattle's front-7 to defend the tandem. Moreno is Manning's workhorse who allows the QB to work his magic.

#11 Will the Broncos convert a 4th Down attempt:

Yes+155

No-175

I say yes. In a Title game, sometimes you must either take a chance or flex your muscles to self-motivate. HC, John Fox and QB, Peyton Manning has done everything at will on offense this season. So it wouldn't surprise me for them to go for it on 4th down. A lot of value here.

#12 Total made 3rd Down conversions by Denver: 5

Over-130

Under+110

I say Over is the play. The most prolific offense in this generation has no problem moving the chains on 3rd down no matter who the foe is.

#13 More TD Passes:

Russell Wilson +1/2 +105

Peyton manning -1/2 -125

Let's face it, Wilson isn't a pure passer nor does he have the deep-threat option or the receiving corps to get it done. Peyton Manning has just that. The MVP candidate has 55 TD's and sports 5 players with at least 10 TD receptions. This is a gimmee.

#14 More Rushing Yards

Marshawn Lynch-30 1/2 -110

Knowshon Moreno +30 1/2 -110

I say Lynch is more valuable to his squad than his counterpart. Moreno will get his yards but also has Ball to help out. Wilson's life or death depends on Lynch's success on the ground.

#15 Will the game be decided by exactly three points:

Yes+330

VALUE, VALUE, VALUE. At better than 3-1 odds, with these two defenses in the Championship game, it very well can come down to a Field Goal. Take the value at +330.

Of, course the one sure way to guarantee a profit is to follow the Biggest Gig Game Hunter In The World. Joe D'Amico.

Thank you and Good Luck